Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals

$176.7K Vol
Sep 5, 2026
Active
Probability Trend
Miami Marlins 64.5%
Washington Nationals 35.5%

Core Summary

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 is dominating the market with an overwhelming 8,350% chance of winning. Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals follows in second place at 7,150%, while 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 sits in third with 6,950%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $176.7K, reflecting intense industry interest.

Breakdown of Competitive Tiers

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

  • 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 (8,350%): Currently commanding the highest probability, 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 8,350¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

  • Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals (7,150%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals maintains a 7,150% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 7,150¢.
  • 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 (6,950%): Sitting in third place with a 6,950% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~0%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

  • Alternative Options: This includes O/U 7.5 (6,350%), Spread -1.5 (5,850%), and 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 (5,550%).
  • Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 are still attracting notable interest.

Comprehensive Order Book & Pricing Dashboard

The table below outlines the full breakdown of contract prices, probabilities, and market depth for all listed outcomes in this prediction pool:

RankPredicted OutcomeWin ProbabilityTrading VolumeBuy Yes (Cost)Buy No (Cost)
11st 5 Innings O/U 2.58350.0%8350¢-8250¢
2Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals7150.0%$109.3K7150¢-7050¢
31st 5 Innings O/U 3.56950.0%$946950¢-6850¢
4O/U 7.56350.0%$4346350¢-6250¢
5Spread -1.55850.0%$3.4K5850¢-5750¢
61st 5 Innings O/U 4.55550.0%$375550¢-5450¢
71st 5 Innings Spread -1.55450.0%$205450¢-5350¢
8O/U 8.55350.0%$63.8K5350¢-5250¢
9Extra Innings5000.0%$115000¢-4900¢
10Spread -2.54750.0%$154750¢-4650¢
11O/U 9.54250.0%$2434250¢-4150¢
121st 5 Innings O/U 5.54150.0%4150¢-4050¢
131st 5 Innings O/U 6.53050.0%3050¢-2950¢
14Spread -1.51650.0%$3.4K1650¢-1550¢
151st 5 Innings Spread -1.51150.0%$201150¢-1050¢
16Spread -2.5950.0%$15950¢-850¢
17NRFI5.0%$20795¢

Result Rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Miami Marlins and Washington Nationals, scheduled for August 28 at 6:45PM ET:

This market will resolve to "Miami Marlins" if the Miami Marlins win the game.

This market will resolve to "Washington Nationals" if the Washington Nationals win the game.

If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50.

The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Trade Activities

Here is the trade activities for this event.

Aug 28, 2026

  • 09:49 PM
    MEMephy
    $2.60

    Bought 5.098038 Under for Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 at 0.51

  • 09:33 PM
    $18.79

    Bought 46.975 Under for Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 at 0.4

  • 09:24 PM
    FLFlaznorp
    $327.14

    Bought 1211.629628 Washington Nationals for Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) at 0.27

  • 09:24 PM
    LLLLOTTI
    $3.65

    Bought 5 Miami Marlins for Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) at 0.73

  • 09:10 PM
    CNcn.ua
    $35.00

    Bought 79.545453 Miami Marlins for Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) at 0.44

  • 09:02 PM
    0X0x8b89ce7ad40Bd55B035d1a15E2F16af87Ee19f72-1781572543178
    $70.40

    Bought 160 Miami Marlins for Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) at 0.44

  • 08:57 PM
    SIsirluca888
    $10.00

    Bought 22.72 Washington Nationals for Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals at 0.44

  • 08:57 PM
    0X0x75234E66C4EcE58Fc586b0D9323b1105993968a0-1780214517706
    $2.20

    Bought 5 Washington Nationals for Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals at 0.44

  • 08:56 PM
    0X0xdf581F50349a11263DC4604e739ddBd692913466-1775866718065
    $3.43

    Bought 7.795453 Miami Marlins for Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) at 0.44

  • 08:55 PM
    SIsirluca888
    $10.00

    Bought 22.72 Washington Nationals for Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals at 0.44

  • 08:55 PM
    0X0x75234E66C4EcE58Fc586b0D9323b1105993968a0-1780214517706
    $2.20

    Bought 5 Washington Nationals for Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals at 0.44

  • 08:54 PM
    0X0x8FEAA7D8D6529D2fc6e6FA1D6bF470cF4c958F7
    $2.00

    Bought 4.545453 Washington Nationals for Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals at 0.44

Whales Wallets That Are Betting on This Event

FE1
ferrariChampions2026
Event PnL
+$33.55
Volume
$19,728.95
Positions
Washington NationalsUnder
PL2
pleaseplease123
Event PnL
+$55.28
Volume
$11,048.63
Positions
Over
HO3
HomeRunHazard
Event PnL
-$44.17
Volume
$9,994.30
Positions
Miami MarlinsWashington NationalsOver+1
CO4
ComingBack
Event PnL
-$15.25
Volume
$3,050.85
Positions
Miami Marlins
SH5
shaw
Event PnL
+$11.92
Volume
$2,864.75
Positions
Washington Nationals
AB6
0xAbF5…1494
Event PnL
+$3.18
Volume
$2,199.90
Positions
Miami Marlins
BT7
btcookiedough555
Event PnL
-$9.52
Volume
$1,904.76
Positions
Washington Nationals
VE8
VeryLucky888
Event PnL
+$9.25
Volume
$1,850.05
Positions
Washington NationalsMiami Marlins

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current market consensus on "Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals"?

As of the latest update, 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 leads the field as the frontrunner with a 8,350% win probability, followed by Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals at 7,150% and 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 at 6,950%. Total trading volume for this pool has reached $176.7K, indicating deep liquidity and high trader engagement.

Get Started