Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees

$91K Vol
Sep 4, 2026
Active
Probability Trend
New York Yankees 59.5%
Houston Astros 40.5%

Core Summary

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, NRFI is dominating the market with an overwhelming 49% chance of winning. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $91K, reflecting intense industry interest.

Breakdown of Competitive Tiers

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

  • NRFI (49%): Currently commanding the highest probability, NRFI is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 49¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $1.3K in volume.

Comprehensive Order Book & Pricing Dashboard

The table below outlines the full breakdown of contract prices, probabilities, and market depth for all listed outcomes in this prediction pool:

RankPredicted OutcomeWin ProbabilityTrading VolumeBuy Yes (Cost)Buy No (Cost)
1NRFI49.0%$1.3K49¢51¢

Result Rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Houston Astros and New York Yankees, scheduled for August 27 at 7:05PM ET:

This market will resolve to "Houston Astros" if the Houston Astros win the game.

This market will resolve to "New York Yankees" if the New York Yankees win the game.

If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50.

The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

AI Valuation Analysis: Finding Market Mispricings & EV Gaps

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

MarketTrade ValueFair ValueEV Gap
NRFI49.0%49.0%0.0%

Trade Activities

Here is the trade activities for this event.

Aug 27, 2026

  • 08:09 AM
    LALadoniwok
    $1.16

    Bought 1.449873 New York Yankees for 1st 5 Innings Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) at 0.8

  • 08:06 AM
    FUfunnyday
    $2.05

    Bought 5 Houston Astros for Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees at 0.41

  • 08:06 AM
    FUfunnyday
    $82.00

    Bought 200 Houston Astros for Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees at 0.41

  • 08:04 AM
    GRgrkopiece
    $1.50

    Bought 1.875 New York Yankees for 1st 5 Innings Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) at 0.8

  • 08:02 AM
    RERest0ferra
    $1.14

    Bought 1.425 New York Yankees for 1st 5 Innings Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) at 0.8

  • 07:59 AM
    GEGeomissi
    $1.00

    Bought 1.25 New York Yankees for 1st 5 Innings Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) at 0.8

  • 07:59 AM
    MWmwsking
    $20.00

    Bought 33.333332 New York Yankees for Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees at 0.6

  • 07:44 AM
    0X0x03EFA68836767Bba9B3855A62F3EF4372909f04E-1783305120694
    $1.00

    Bought 1.666665 New York Yankees for Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees at 0.6

  • 07:30 AM
    WIwiwibtc
    $2.55

    Bought 5 No for Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees at 0.51

  • 07:27 AM
    PEpekpym
    $2.00

    Bought 4.545453 Under for Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 at 0.44

  • 07:26 AM
    FIfizzwont
    $25.00

    Bought 47.16981 Under for Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 at 0.53

  • 07:20 AM
    VKVkey5
    $1.99

    Bought 4.522726 Under for Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 at 0.44

Whales Wallets That Are Betting on This Event

3D1
0x3DFb…8185
Event PnL
+$19.12
Volume
$69,999.99
Positions
New York Yankees
IC2
ic4cream
Event PnL
+$175.30
Volume
$35,059.00
Positions
Houston Astros
HO3
HomeRunHazard
Event PnL
+$90.33
Volume
$17,454.25
Positions
Houston AstrosUnderUnder+1
FE4
ferrariChampions2026
Event PnL
+$50.04
Volume
$10,007.30
Positions
Houston Astros
325
0x32b4…3653
Event PnL
+$7.28
Volume
$6,932.45
Positions
Houston Astros
HA6
haslii
Event PnL
-$6.05
Volume
$5,419.30
Positions
Houston Astros
SE7
sentrio
Event PnL
+$13.51
Volume
$2,701.72
Positions
Houston Astros
CO8
ComingBack
Event PnL
-$12.50
Volume
$2,500.00
Positions
New York Yankees

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current market consensus on "Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees"?

As of the latest update, NRFI leads the field as the frontrunner with a 49% win probability. Total trading volume for this pool has reached $91K, indicating deep liquidity and high trader engagement.

How does the AI Fair Value differ from the live Market Trade Value?

The live Market Trade Value reflects public sentiment, order-book momentum and speculative capital. Our AI Fair Value is computed independently with quantitative models that strip out hype to focus on underlying data. When the two diverge, it creates an EV Gap, flagging where the market may be mispricing an outcome.

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