Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, ↑3k is dominating the market with an overwhelming 74.5% chance of winning. ↑4k follows in second place at 27%, while ↑5k sits in third with 17.5%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $7.7M, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• ↑3k (74.5%): Currently commanding the highest probability, ↑3k is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 75¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $68.4K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• ↑4k (27%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, ↑4k maintains a 27% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 27¢.
• ↑5k (17.5%): Sitting in third place with a 17.5% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward ↑5k, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~0%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes ↑7.5k (11%), ↑10k (6.8%), and ↑12.5k (4.5%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like ↑7.5k are still attracting notable interest.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.

Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome ↑12.5k currently trades at 4.5%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 1%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -3.5%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies ↑5k as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 17.5% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 36% — yielding an impressive +18.5% EV Gap.
• Under-the-Radar Dark Horses Other notable discrepancies include ↑4k (EV Gap: +16%) and ↑10k (EV Gap: +13.8%). These long-tail opportunities are heavily discounted by the live order books despite stronger statistical backing from our predictive model.