Lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 16?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 16?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, 23°C is dominating the market with an overwhelming 5,250% chance of winning. 24°C follows in second place at 3,000%, while 22°C sits in third with 1,100%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $508, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• 23°C (5,250%): Currently commanding the highest probability, 23°C is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 5,250¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $75 in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• 24°C (3,000%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, 24°C maintains a 3,000% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 3,000¢.
• 22°C (1,100%): Sitting in third place with a 1,100% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward 22°C, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~0%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes 25°C (600%), 21°C (350%), and 20°C (250%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like 26°C are still attracting notable interest.

This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.