Lowest temperature in San Francisco on August 24?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Lowest temperature in San Francisco on August 24?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, 49°F or below is dominating the market with an overwhelming 4,950% chance of winning. 68°F or higher follows in second place at 4,950%, while 58-59°F sits in third with 2,700%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached —, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• 49°F or below (4,950%): Currently commanding the highest probability, 49°F or below is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 4,950¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• 68°F or higher (4,950%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, 68°F or higher maintains a 4,950% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 4,950¢.
• 58-59°F (2,700%): Sitting in third place with a 2,700% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward 58-59°F, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~0%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes 60-61°F (2,700%), 52-53°F (2,600%), and 54-55°F (2,600%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like 56-57°F are still attracting notable interest.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo

This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.

This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.