Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, SpaceX is dominating the market with an overwhelming 88% chance of winning. Anthropic follows in second place at 10.7%, while OpenAI sits in third with 2.3%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $2.4M, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• SpaceX (88%): Currently commanding the highest probability, SpaceX is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 88¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $337.3K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• Anthropic (10.7%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, Anthropic maintains a 10.7% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 11¢.
• OpenAI (2.3%): Sitting in third place with a 2.3% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward OpenAI, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~0%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes ByteDance (0.1%), Stripe (0.1%), and Databricks (0.1%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like SHEIN are still attracting notable interest.

This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.

This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.

If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.

Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.

In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.

A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.

In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome SpaceX currently trades at 88%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 85.3%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -2.7%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies Discord as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 0.1% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 1% — yielding an impressive +1% EV Gap.
• Under-the-Radar Dark Horses Other notable discrepancies include Kraken (EV Gap: +1%) and Stripe (EV Gap: +0.4%). These long-tail opportunities are heavily discounted by the live order books despite stronger statistical backing from our predictive model.