July 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “July 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, 1.20–1.24ºC is dominating the market with an overwhelming 88% chance of winning. 1.10–1.14ºC follows in second place at 46%, while 1.15–1.19ºC sits in third with 45%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $414, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• 1.20–1.24ºC (88%): Currently commanding the highest probability, 1.20–1.24ºC is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 88¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $9.7K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• 1.10–1.14ºC (46%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, 1.10–1.14ºC maintains a 46% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 46¢.
• 1.15–1.19ºC (45%): Sitting in third place with a 45% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward 1.15–1.19ºC, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~0%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes >1.29ºC (44%), <1.10ºC (43%), and 1.25–1.29ºC (16%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like >1.29ºC are still attracting notable interest.

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.

An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).

If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.

If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome 1.20–1.24ºC currently trades at 88%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 39.8%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -48.2%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.