Jessica Tisch out as New York City Police Commissioner by...?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Jessica Tisch out as New York City Police Commissioner by...?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, December 31 is dominating the market with an overwhelming 2,100% chance of winning. September 30 follows in second place at 1,200%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached —, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• December 31 (2,100%): Currently commanding the highest probability, December 31 is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 2,100¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• September 30 (1,200%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, September 30 maintains a 1,200% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 1,200¢.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jessica Tisch’s departure as New York City Police Commissioner is officially announced by the specified date at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise it will resolve to "No".

The departure will be considered to be announced when Jessica Tisch, the New York City Police Department, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that Jessica Tisch has ceased or will cease to hold the position of New York City Police Commissioner. Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when the specified person formally leaves the position. Announcements of the specified person’s resignation, removal, or departure through other means all qualify.

The following do not qualify as public and definitive announcements: statements that the specified person is considering or open to departing; conditional statements that the specified person will depart only if specified conditions are met; the announcement of an offer

of resignation that requires acceptance and remains pending or has been refused; media reports that the specified person plans to depart; statements made in sarcasm or jest; and statements by persons other than the specified person, the relevant authority governing the specified position, or their respective authorized representatives.

Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither “I will leave office in 2 years,” nor “I will not be in office forever,” would qualify).

Announcements of temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify.

If the specified person holds the specified position on a predefined term with a scheduled end date, only announcements that they will depart the position prior to the scheduled end of their term qualify.

If the specified person formally ceases to hold the specified position before the end of their scheduled term without a qualifying announcement, the market will resolve to "Yes" if a consensus of credible reporting confirms the departure by the specified date at 11:59PM ET.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Jessica Tisch and the City of New York; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.