Shein IPO Closing Market Cap Above __?

「Shein IPO Closing Market Cap Above __?」に関する最新の予測市場データによると、トレーダーの間で強いコンセンサスが形成されています。

現在、↑ 200B HKD が 8,900% という圧倒的な勝率で市場を支配しています。↑ 250B HKD が 6,750% で2番手、↑ 300B HKD が 5,600% で3番手。この市場の賭け金はすでに $1.6K に達し、高い関心を示しています。

各結果の位置をより的確に評価するため、市場はインプライド確率と契約価格に基づいて3つの取引ティアに分けられます：

🥇 ティア1：圧倒的なリーダー

• ↑ 200B HKD (8,900%)：最も高い確率を持つ ↑ 200B HKD は板から厚く支持されています。この結果に賭けるトレーダーは 8,900¢ の「Buy Yes」契約価格に直面し、市場の強い確信を示しています。 この契約だけで $20 の出来高を生んでいます。

🥈 ティア2：主要な対抗馬

• ↑ 250B HKD (6,750%)：最も有力な対抗馬として、↑ 250B HKD は 6,750% の的中確率を維持しています。「Buy Yes」株は現在 6,750¢ で取引されています。
• ↑ 300B HKD (5,600%)：5,600% の確率で3番手につけ、市場は ↑ 300B HKD に慎重な懐疑を示し、勢いが変わらない限り外部のワイルドカードと見なしています。

🥉 ティア3：ロングテール選択肢（合計約 0%）

トップ3以外にも、多くのマクロ変数と大穴の結果が追跡されています。個々の確率は低いものの、投機トレーダーにとって重要なヘッジとなります：

• 代替選択肢：↑ 400B HKD (2,850%)、↑ 350B HKD (2,800%) などが含まれます。
• 投機的出来高：統計的な可能性は低いものの、↑ 400B HKD のようなロングテール契約は依然として相応の関心を集めています。

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Shein's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading is greater than or equal to the listed value. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No”.

Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.

It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.

If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.

This market will resolve based on market capitalization in Hong Kong Dollars (HKD). If the currency of the primary exchange is not HKD, this market will resolve based on a converted value to HKD, using the conversion rate at the time of market close of the primary exchange on the company's first day of trading.

The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.

In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.