Louisiana Senate Election Margin of Victory

「Louisiana Senate Election Margin of Victory」に関する最新の予測市場データによると、トレーダーの間で強いコンセンサスが形成されています。

現在、Democrat Wins が 4,350% という圧倒的な勝率で市場を支配しています。Republican 35%+ が 4,150% で2番手、Republican 20-25% が 2,700% で3番手。この市場の賭け金はすでに — に達し、高い関心を示しています。

各結果の位置をより的確に評価するため、市場はインプライド確率と契約価格に基づいて3つの取引ティアに分けられます：

🥇 ティア1：圧倒的なリーダー

• Democrat Wins (4,350%)：最も高い確率を持つ Democrat Wins は板から厚く支持されています。この結果に賭けるトレーダーは 4,350¢ の「Buy Yes」契約価格に直面し、市場の強い確信を示しています。

🥈 ティア2：主要な対抗馬

• Republican 35%+ (4,150%)：最も有力な対抗馬として、Republican 35%+ は 4,150% の的中確率を維持しています。「Buy Yes」株は現在 4,150¢ で取引されています。
• Republican 20-25% (2,700%)：2,700% の確率で3番手につけ、市場は Republican 20-25% に慎重な懐疑を示し、勢いが変わらない限り外部のワイルドカードと見なしています。

🥉 ティア3：ロングテール選択肢（合計約 0%）

トップ3以外にも、多くのマクロ変数と大穴の結果が追跡されています。個々の確率は低いものの、投機トレーダーにとって重要なヘッジとなります：

• 代替選択肢：Republican 5-10% (2,700%)、Republican 30-35% (2,600%)、Republican 25-30% (2,600%) などが含まれます。
• 投機的出来高：統計的な可能性は低いものの、Republican 15-20% のようなロングテール契約は依然として相応の関心を集めています。

The 2026 Louisiana Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.

The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Louisiana Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.