Leningrad Oblast Parliament Election: Party Winner

「Leningrad Oblast Parliament Election: Party Winner」に関する最新の予測市場データによると、トレーダーの間で強いコンセンサスが形成されています。

現在、United Russia が 4,350% という圧倒的な勝率で市場を支配しています。CPRF が 4,300% で2番手、A Just Russia が 4,250% で3番手。この市場の賭け金はすでに — に達し、高い関心を示しています。

各結果の位置をより的確に評価するため、市場はインプライド確率と契約価格に基づいて3つの取引ティアに分けられます：

🥇 ティア1：圧倒的なリーダー

• United Russia (4,350%)：最も高い確率を持つ United Russia は板から厚く支持されています。この結果に賭けるトレーダーは 4,350¢ の「Buy Yes」契約価格に直面し、市場の強い確信を示しています。

🥈 ティア2：主要な対抗馬

• CPRF (4,300%)：最も有力な対抗馬として、CPRF は 4,300% の的中確率を維持しています。「Buy Yes」株は現在 4,300¢ で取引されています。
• A Just Russia (4,250%)：4,250% の確率で3番手につけ、市場は A Just Russia に慎重な懐疑を示し、勢いが変わらない限り外部のワイルドカードと見なしています。

🥉 ティア3：ロングテール選択肢（合計約 0%）

トップ3以外にも、多くのマクロ変数と大穴の結果が追跡されています。個々の確率は低いものの、投機トレーダーにとって重要なヘッジとなります：

• 代替選択肢：New People (4,250%)、LDPR (4,200%)、Communists of Russia (4,200%) などが含まれます。
• 投機的出来高：統計的な可能性は低いものの、Rodina のようなロングテール契約は依然として相応の関心を集めています。

Parliamentary elections to elect the Legislative Assembly of Leningrad Oblast, Russia are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Legislative Assembly of Leningrad Oblast as a result of this election.

The number of seats will include all members of the Legislative Assembly of Leningrad Oblast serving as a result of this election, including members elected in a single- or multiple-member constituency or by proportional representation, where applicable.

If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose party list received a greater number of valid votes in the specified region’s proportional representation system. Aggregate votes received in constituencies will have no bearing on resolution in a tie. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose name as listed in this market appears first in alphabetical order.

A constituency-elected member will count towards the party they registered to contest the election with. A member elected by proportional representation will count towards the party whose list they were elected from.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. Independents will not count towards any party.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Leningrad Oblast and Russia, including the Election Commission of Leningrad Oblast and the Central Election Commission of Russia.