Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by...?

「Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by...?」に関する最新の予測市場データによると、トレーダーの間で強いコンセンサスが形成されています。

現在、August 31 が 1,050% という圧倒的な勝率で市場を支配しています。July 31 が 750% で2番手。この市場の賭け金はすでに $1.3K に達し、高い関心を示しています。

各結果の位置をより的確に評価するため、市場はインプライド確率と契約価格に基づいて3つの取引ティアに分けられます：

🥇 ティア1：圧倒的なリーダー

• August 31 (1,050%)：最も高い確率を持つ August 31 は板から厚く支持されています。この結果に賭けるトレーダーは 1,050¢ の「Buy Yes」契約価格に直面し、市場の強い確信を示しています。 この契約だけで $842 の出来高を生んでいます。

🥈 ティア2：主要な対抗馬

• July 31 (750%)：最も有力な対抗馬として、July 31 は 750% の的中確率を維持しています。「Buy Yes」株は現在 750¢ で取引されています。

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a diplomatic meeting between official representatives of Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A diplomatic meeting occurs when representatives of both specified countries or political entities. who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in diplomacy on behalf of their respective governments or governing authorities, deliberately meet for the purpose of diplomacy or negotiation between the countries.

Both direct and indirect meetings will qualify. A direct meeting refers to a diplomatic meeting where the representatives of the specified entities directly interact with each other in person. An indirect meeting refers to a meeting conducted indirectly through designated mediators or facilitators. A qualifying indirect meeting must meet both of the following criteria (i) the designated intermediaries act with the knowledge and authorization of both entities; (ii) representatives of both entities are physically present in the same facility, venue, or city, with the intermediary conveying diplomatic communications between the representatives or delegations on the same day. “The same day” means the same calendar day local time at the meeting location.

The following do not qualify as either a direct or indirect diplomatic meeting: chance encounters; standalone exchanges limited to greetings, courtesies, or photo opportunities; meetings conducted remotely, by telephone, or by any other means where the relevant representatives are not physically present at the same facility, venue, or city on the same day; discussions involving persons not authorized to engage in diplomacy or negotiation on behalf of their respective governments.

Sessions, proceedings, or convenings of standing international organizations, treaty bodies, or recurring multilateral summits or conferences (e.g., the United Nations General Assembly, G7, and G20 summits) do not qualify, unless a qualifying and deliberate diplomatic meeting between representatives of the specified entities is separately held alongside such a convening.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.