Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by...?

「Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by...?」に関する最新の予測市場データによると、トレーダーの間で強いコンセンサスが形成されています。

現在、August 31 が 5,350% という圧倒的な勝率で市場を支配しています。August 15 が 5,250% で2番手。この市場の賭け金はすでに — に達し、高い関心を示しています。

各結果の位置をより的確に評価するため、市場はインプライド確率と契約価格に基づいて3つの取引ティアに分けられます：

🥇 ティア1：圧倒的なリーダー

• August 31 (5,350%)：最も高い確率を持つ August 31 は板から厚く支持されています。この結果に賭けるトレーダーは 5,350¢ の「Buy Yes」契約価格に直面し、市場の強い確信を示しています。

🥈 ティア2：主要な対抗馬

• August 15 (5,250%)：最も有力な対抗馬として、August 15 は 5,250% の的中確率を維持しています。「Buy Yes」株は現在 5,250¢ で取引されています。

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Houthis take a qualifying military action against Saudi Arabia by the specified date, 11:59 PM Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”

A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the Houthis, that directly impacts Saudi Arabia. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.

The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:

Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;

Surface-to-air missile strikes;

Small-arms fire;

Ground incursions;

Cyber operations;

Naval gunfire and artillery fire;

Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);

Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;

Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.

Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Yemen do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.

“Saudi Arabia” refers to the terrestrial territory of Saudi Arabia, including its internal waters. Saudi Arabia’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Saudi Arabia as of market creation will qualify.

The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (AST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.

The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government and military of Saudi Arabia, the Houthis and credible reporting.