ISM Manufacturing PMI - August 2026

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “ISM Manufacturing PMI - August 2026”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, <51.0 is dominating the market with an overwhelming 4,950% chance of winning. 51.0–51.9 follows in second place at 4,950%, while 52.0–52.9 sits in third with 4,950%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached —, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• <51.0 (4,950%): Currently commanding the highest probability, <51.0 is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 4,950¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• 51.0–51.9 (4,950%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, 51.0–51.9 maintains a 4,950% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 4,950¢.
• 52.0–52.9 (4,950%): Sitting in third place with a 4,950% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward 52.0–52.9, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~0%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes 53.0–53.9 (4,950%), 54.0–54.9 (4,950%), and 55.0–55.9 (4,950%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like 56.0–56.9 are still attracting notable interest.

This is a market about the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for August 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction.

This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for August 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business.

The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business released for August 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on September 1, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.

Note: The ISM Manufacturing PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.

If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Manufacturing PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.