Iran successfully targets shipping by...?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Iran successfully targets shipping by...?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, August 31 is dominating the market with an overwhelming 9,150% chance of winning. July 31 follows in second place at 8,200%, while July 15 sits in third with 6,750%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $9.2K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• August 31 (9,150%): Currently commanding the highest probability, August 31 is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 9,150¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $3.8K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• July 31 (8,200%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, July 31 maintains a 8,200% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 8,200¢.
• July 15 (6,750%): Sitting in third place with a 6,750% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward July 15, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.

Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.

Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.

Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.

Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.