Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, December 31 is dominating the market with an overwhelming 21.5% chance of winning. July 31 follows in second place at 2.9%, while June 30 sits in third with 1.4%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $17M, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• December 31 (21.5%): Currently commanding the highest probability, December 31 is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 22¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $1.9M in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• July 31 (2.9%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, July 31 maintains a 2.9% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 3¢.
• June 30 (1.4%): Sitting in third place with a 1.4% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward June 30, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.

An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.

To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).

Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.

An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.

Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome July 31 currently trades at 2.9%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 1%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -1.9%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies December 31 as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 21.5% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 43.3% — yielding an impressive +21.8% EV Gap.
• Under-the-Radar Dark Horses Other notable discrepancies include June 30 (EV Gap: +6.9%). These long-tail opportunities are heavily discounted by the live order books despite stronger statistical backing from our predictive model.