How many SpaceX launches in 2026?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “How many SpaceX launches in 2026?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, 140-159 is dominating the market with an overwhelming 49.5% chance of winning. 120-139 follows in second place at 45.6%, while 180-199 sits in third with 5.3%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $347.3K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• 140-159 (49.5%): Currently commanding the highest probability, 140-159 is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 50¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $51.4K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• 120-139 (45.6%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, 120-139 maintains a 45.6% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 46¢.
• 180-199 (5.3%): Sitting in third place with a 5.3% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward 180-199, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~0%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes 200 or more (1.8%), and 160-179 (0.5%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like 200 or more are still attracting notable interest.

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.

If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome 120-139 currently trades at 45.6%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 13%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -32.7%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies 160-179 as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 0.5% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 29.8% — yielding an impressive +29.3% EV Gap.
• Under-the-Radar Dark Horses Other notable discrepancies include 180-199 (EV Gap: +0.8%). These long-tail opportunities are heavily discounted by the live order books despite stronger statistical backing from our predictive model.