How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 27?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 27?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, 50-74 is dominating the market with an overwhelming 4,200% chance of winning. 100+ follows in second place at 4,200%, while <25 sits in third with 4,150%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached —, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• 50-74 (4,200%): Currently commanding the highest probability, 50-74 is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 4,200¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• 100+ (4,200%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, 100+ maintains a 4,200% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 4,200¢.
• <25 (4,150%): Sitting in third place with a 4,150% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward <25, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~0%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes 25-49 (4,150%), and 75-99 (4,150%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like 25-49 are still attracting notable interest.

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from July 27, 2026, through August 2, 2026, inclusive.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.

In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.

Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.