How many jobs added in July?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “How many jobs added in July?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, 50k – 100k is dominating the market with an overwhelming 4,750% chance of winning. 200k+ follows in second place at 4,600%, while 100k – 150k sits in third with 3,900%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached —, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• 50k – 100k (4,750%): Currently commanding the highest probability, 50k – 100k is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 4,750¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• 200k+ (4,600%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, 200k+ maintains a 4,600% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 4,600¢.
• 100k – 150k (3,900%): Sitting in third place with a 3,900% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward 100k – 150k, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~0%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes <0 (3,650%), 0 – 50k (2,200%), and 150k – 200k (2,200%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like <0 are still attracting notable interest.

This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for July 2026, scheduled to be released on August 7, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.

The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm