How many 5.5 or above earthquakes July 14 - July 19?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “How many 5.5 or above earthquakes July 14 - July 19?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, >12 is dominating the market with an overwhelming 54.5% chance of winning. 12 follows in second place at 26.5%, while 11 sits in third with 18.5%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $61.2K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• >12 (54.5%): Currently commanding the highest probability, >12 is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 55¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $11.4K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• 12 (26.5%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, 12 maintains a 26.5% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 27¢.
• 11 (18.5%): Sitting in third place with a 18.5% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward 11, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~0.5%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes 10 (1.6%), 9 (0.4%), and 7 (0.2%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like ≤6 are still attracting notable interest.

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between July 14, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and July 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.

This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome >12 currently trades at 54.5%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 23.5%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -31%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies 9 as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 0.4% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 3.6% — yielding an impressive +3.2% EV Gap.
• Under-the-Radar Dark Horses Other notable discrepancies include ≤6 (EV Gap: +2.7%) and 7 (EV Gap: +2.1%). These long-tail opportunities are heavily discounted by the live order books despite stronger statistical backing from our predictive model.