How many 5.5 or above earthquakes August 3 - August 9?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “How many 5.5 or above earthquakes August 3 - August 9?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, ≤6 is dominating the market with an overwhelming 2,900% chance of winning. 8 follows in second place at 1,450%, while >13 sits in third with 1,300%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $389, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• ≤6 (2,900%): Currently commanding the highest probability, ≤6 is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 2,900¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $68 in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• 8 (1,450%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, 8 maintains a 1,450% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 1,450¢.
• >13 (1,300%): Sitting in third place with a 1,300% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward >13, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~0%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes 7 (1,150%), 9 (1,150%), and 10 (1,050%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like 11 are still attracting notable interest.

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.

This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.