Highest Mt. Washington wind speed in July?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Highest Mt. Washington wind speed in July?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, ≥90 mph is dominating the market with an overwhelming 87.5% chance of winning. ≥85 mph follows in second place at 56%, while ≥115 mph sits in third with 50%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $78K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• ≥90 mph (87.5%): Currently commanding the highest probability, ≥90 mph is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 88¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $17.1K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• ≥85 mph (56%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, ≥85 mph maintains a 56% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 56¢.
• ≥115 mph (50%): Sitting in third place with a 50% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward ≥115 mph, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~0%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes ≥110 mph (48%), ≥95 mph (47%), and ≥100 mph (47%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like ≥105 mph are still attracting notable interest.

This market will resolve based on the highest wind speed, in miles per hour, reported on the summit of Mt. Washington in New Hampshire in July, 2026.

The resolution source will be data published by the Mt. Washington Weather Observatory. F6 reports containing daily wind speed recordings can be found here: https://mountwashington.org/weather/mount-washington-weather-archives/monthly-f6/.

The resolution source for this market measures wind speeds to whole mile per hour (eg, 67mph). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Revisions to the wind speed recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following month has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome ≥90 mph currently trades at 87.5%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 54.2%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -33.3%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies ≥85 mph as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 56% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 91.3% — yielding an impressive +35.3% EV Gap.
• Under-the-Radar Dark Horses Other notable discrepancies include ≥95 mph (EV Gap: +5.7%) and ≥100 mph (EV Gap: +4.3%). These long-tail opportunities are heavily discounted by the live order books despite stronger statistical backing from our predictive model.