Grok (Web) Outage by...?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Grok (Web) Outage by...?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, December 31 is dominating the market with an overwhelming 7,100% chance of winning. October 31 follows in second place at 5,500%, while August 31 sits in third with 1,100%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $221, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• December 31 (7,100%): Currently commanding the highest probability, December 31 is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 7,100¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• October 31 (5,500%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, October 31 maintains a 5,500% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 5,500¢.
• August 31 (1,100%): Sitting in third place with a 1,100% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward August 31, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Grok (Web) experiences an incident labeled “outage” on the official xAI Grok (Web) status page between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

Only incidents listed under Grok (Web) will be considered. Incidents affecting Grok in X, Grok (iOS), Grok (Android), or similar but not Grok (Web), will not qualify.

Incidents labeled “disruption” or “info” will not qualify.

An incident’s status while it remains ongoing will not determine the market’s resolution; only incidents marked “Resolved” will be considered.

An incident which is marked "Resolved" outside this market’s timeframe will only qualify if ongoing at the end of the listed calendar date (ET), in which case the market will remain open until that incident is marked “Resolved,” and resolution of this market will be based on the incident classification displayed immediately after it is marked "Resolved."

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official xAI Grok (Web) status page at https://status.x.ai/grok-com. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until it comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".