GA-13 Special Election Winner

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “GA-13 Special Election Winner”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, Carlos Moore is dominating the market with an overwhelming 31.5% chance of winning. Everton Blair follows in second place at 29.5%, while Marcye Scott sits in third with 17.5%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $17.8K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• Carlos Moore (31.5%): Currently commanding the highest probability, Carlos Moore is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 32¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $6.0K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• Everton Blair (29.5%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, Everton Blair maintains a 29.5% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 30¢.
• Marcye Scott (17.5%): Sitting in third place with a 17.5% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward Marcye Scott, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~21.5%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes Caesar Gonzales (9%), Fayth Park (8%), and Tony Brown (6%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like Caesar Gonzales are still attracting notable interest.

A special election is currently scheduled for July 28, 2026 to fill the seat of Georgia’s 13th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives, with a potential runoff scheduled for August 25, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the winner of this election.

This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://sos.ga.gov/.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome Carlos Moore currently trades at 31.5%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 4.3%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -27.2%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies Marcye Scott as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 17.5% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 45.1% — yielding an impressive +27.6% EV Gap.