Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Margin of Victory (0.2% Brackets)

Según los datos más recientes del mercado de predicción para la consulta “Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Margin of Victory (0.2% Brackets)”, los operadores han formado un fuerte consenso.

Actualmente, Crowley 0.4–0.6% domina el mercado con una abrumadora probabilidad de victoria del 7350%. Crowley 0.2–0.4% le sigue en segundo lugar con 1650%, mientras que Crowley 0.6–0.8% se sitúa tercero con 395%. El volumen de apuestas de este mercado ya alcanza $60,3K, lo que refleja un enorme interés.

Para evaluar mejor la posición de cada resultado posible, el mercado puede segmentarse en tres niveles de negociación según la probabilidad implícita y el precio de los contratos:

🥇 Nivel 1: El líder dominante

• Crowley 0.4–0.6% (7350%): Con la probabilidad más alta, Crowley 0.4–0.6% cuenta con un fuerte respaldo del libro de órdenes. Quienes quieran apostar por este resultado se enfrentan a un precio de contrato “Buy Yes” de 7350¢, señal de una gran convicción del mercado. Solo este contrato ha generado $10.7K de volumen.

🥈 Nivel 2: Los principales aspirantes

• Crowley 0.2–0.4% (1650%): Como la alternativa más viable, Crowley 0.2–0.4% mantiene una probabilidad del 1650% de resolverse a favor. Sus acciones “Buy Yes” cotizan actualmente a 1650¢.
• Crowley 0.6–0.8% (395%): En tercer lugar con una probabilidad del 395%, el mercado muestra un escepticismo prudente hacia Crowley 0.6–0.8%, tratándolo como un comodín externo salvo que cambie el impulso.

🥉 Nivel 3: Las opciones de cola larga (suman ~0%)

Más allá de las tres primeras opciones, se sigue un amplio campo de variables macro y resultados poco probables. Aunque sus probabilidades individuales son bajas, son coberturas clave para los operadores especulativos:

• Opciones alternativas: Esto incluye Crowley <0.2% (325%), Crowley 0.8–1% (190%) y Crowley 1–1.2% (135%).
• Volumen especulativo: A pesar de su baja probabilidad estadística, ciertos contratos de cola larga como Hong 1%+ siguen atrayendo un interés notable.

The Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 11, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.