S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 13?

Según los datos más recientes del mercado de predicción para la consulta “S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 13?”, los operadores han formado un fuerte consenso.

Actualmente, Up domina el mercado con una abrumadora probabilidad de victoria del 9925%. Down le sigue en segundo lugar con 75%. El volumen de apuestas de este mercado ya alcanza $57,5K, lo que refleja un enorme interés.

Para evaluar mejor la posición de cada resultado posible, el mercado puede segmentarse en tres niveles de negociación según la probabilidad implícita y el precio de los contratos:

🥇 Nivel 1: El líder dominante

• Up (9925%): Con la probabilidad más alta, Up cuenta con un fuerte respaldo del libro de órdenes. Quienes quieran apostar por este resultado se enfrentan a un precio de contrato “Buy Yes” de 9925¢, señal de una gran convicción del mercado.

🥈 Nivel 2: Los principales aspirantes

• Down (75%): Como la alternativa más viable, Down mantiene una probabilidad del 75% de resolverse a favor. Sus acciones “Buy Yes” cotizan actualmente a 75¢.

This market will resolve to "Up" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Thursday, August 13, 2026 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day.

This market will resolve to "Down" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Thursday, August 13, 2026 is lower than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day.

E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day.

If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.

If SPX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50.

If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official closing price published by S&P 500 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.

If either of the relevant days have no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.

The resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices".

US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks

EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea

ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia