Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by...?

Según los datos más recientes del mercado de predicción para la consulta “Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by...?”, los operadores han formado un fuerte consenso.

Actualmente, July 31 domina el mercado con una abrumadora probabilidad de victoria del 600%. July 24 le sigue en segundo lugar con 400%, mientras que July 17 se sitúa tercero con 350%. El volumen de apuestas de este mercado ya alcanza $20, lo que refleja un enorme interés.

Para evaluar mejor la posición de cada resultado posible, el mercado puede segmentarse en tres niveles de negociación según la probabilidad implícita y el precio de los contratos:

🥇 Nivel 1: El líder dominante

• July 31 (600%): Con la probabilidad más alta, July 31 cuenta con un fuerte respaldo del libro de órdenes. Quienes quieran apostar por este resultado se enfrentan a un precio de contrato “Buy Yes” de 600¢, señal de una gran convicción del mercado. Solo este contrato ha generado $20 de volumen.

🥈 Nivel 2: Los principales aspirantes

• July 24 (400%): Como la alternativa más viable, July 24 mantiene una probabilidad del 400% de resolverse a favor. Sus acciones “Buy Yes” cotizan actualmente a 400¢.
• July 17 (350%): En tercer lugar con una probabilidad del 350%, el mercado muestra un escepticismo prudente hacia July 17, tratándolo como un comodín externo salvo que cambie el impulso.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mykhailo Fedorov is reinstated as Ukraine’s Minister of Defense by the listed date at 11:59 PM Kyiv time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

Fedorov will be considered reinstated if he is either i) officially assigned to temporarily perform the minister’s duties or ii) formally nominated for appointment by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to the Verkhovna Rada.

A temporary reinstatement will be considered to have occurred when the President of Ukraine or the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine officially and definitively announces that Mykhailo Fedorov has been assigned to temporarily perform the duties of the Minister of Defense. A formal nomination will be considered to have occurred upon the submission of Mykhailo Fedorov’s nomination to the Verkhovna Rada.

A public statement, media report, expression of intent, or informal announcement will not qualify, unless it constitutes an official and definitive announcement by the President of Ukraine or the Cabinet of Ministers assigning Fedorov to perform the minister’s duties. Fedorov does not need to be approved by the Verkhovna Rada, take the oath of office, or assume the position on a permanent basis to qualify.

Whether any individual other than Mykhailo Fedorov is nominated, temporarily assigned, or appointed Minister of Defense, within the market timeframe, will not be considered. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information and records from the President of Ukraine, the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine, and the Verkhovna Rada; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.