Leningrad Oblast Parliament Election: Party Winner

Según los datos más recientes del mercado de predicción para la consulta “Leningrad Oblast Parliament Election: Party Winner”, los operadores han formado un fuerte consenso.

Actualmente, United Russia domina el mercado con una abrumadora probabilidad de victoria del 4350%. CPRF le sigue en segundo lugar con 4300%, mientras que A Just Russia se sitúa tercero con 4250%. El volumen de apuestas de este mercado ya alcanza —, lo que refleja un enorme interés.

Para evaluar mejor la posición de cada resultado posible, el mercado puede segmentarse en tres niveles de negociación según la probabilidad implícita y el precio de los contratos:

🥇 Nivel 1: El líder dominante

• United Russia (4350%): Con la probabilidad más alta, United Russia cuenta con un fuerte respaldo del libro de órdenes. Quienes quieran apostar por este resultado se enfrentan a un precio de contrato “Buy Yes” de 4350¢, señal de una gran convicción del mercado.

🥈 Nivel 2: Los principales aspirantes

• CPRF (4300%): Como la alternativa más viable, CPRF mantiene una probabilidad del 4300% de resolverse a favor. Sus acciones “Buy Yes” cotizan actualmente a 4300¢.
• A Just Russia (4250%): En tercer lugar con una probabilidad del 4250%, el mercado muestra un escepticismo prudente hacia A Just Russia, tratándolo como un comodín externo salvo que cambie el impulso.

🥉 Nivel 3: Las opciones de cola larga (suman ~0%)

Más allá de las tres primeras opciones, se sigue un amplio campo de variables macro y resultados poco probables. Aunque sus probabilidades individuales son bajas, son coberturas clave para los operadores especulativos:

• Opciones alternativas: Esto incluye New People (4250%), LDPR (4200%) y Communists of Russia (4200%).
• Volumen especulativo: A pesar de su baja probabilidad estadística, ciertos contratos de cola larga como Rodina siguen atrayendo un interés notable.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Legislative Assembly of Leningrad Oblast, Russia are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Legislative Assembly of Leningrad Oblast as a result of this election.

The number of seats will include all members of the Legislative Assembly of Leningrad Oblast serving as a result of this election, including members elected in a single- or multiple-member constituency or by proportional representation, where applicable.

If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose party list received a greater number of valid votes in the specified region’s proportional representation system. Aggregate votes received in constituencies will have no bearing on resolution in a tie. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose name as listed in this market appears first in alphabetical order.

A constituency-elected member will count towards the party they registered to contest the election with. A member elected by proportional representation will count towards the party whose list they were elected from.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. Independents will not count towards any party.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Leningrad Oblast and Russia, including the Election Commission of Leningrad Oblast and the Central Election Commission of Russia.