Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by...?

Según los datos más recientes del mercado de predicción para la consulta “Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by...?”, los operadores han formado un fuerte consenso.

Actualmente, August 31 domina el mercado con una abrumadora probabilidad de victoria del 1050%. July 31 le sigue en segundo lugar con 750%. El volumen de apuestas de este mercado ya alcanza $1,3K, lo que refleja un enorme interés.

Para evaluar mejor la posición de cada resultado posible, el mercado puede segmentarse en tres niveles de negociación según la probabilidad implícita y el precio de los contratos:

🥇 Nivel 1: El líder dominante

• August 31 (1050%): Con la probabilidad más alta, August 31 cuenta con un fuerte respaldo del libro de órdenes. Quienes quieran apostar por este resultado se enfrentan a un precio de contrato “Buy Yes” de 1050¢, señal de una gran convicción del mercado. Solo este contrato ha generado $842 de volumen.

🥈 Nivel 2: Los principales aspirantes

• July 31 (750%): Como la alternativa más viable, July 31 mantiene una probabilidad del 750% de resolverse a favor. Sus acciones “Buy Yes” cotizan actualmente a 750¢.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a diplomatic meeting between official representatives of Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A diplomatic meeting occurs when representatives of both specified countries or political entities. who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in diplomacy on behalf of their respective governments or governing authorities, deliberately meet for the purpose of diplomacy or negotiation between the countries.

Both direct and indirect meetings will qualify. A direct meeting refers to a diplomatic meeting where the representatives of the specified entities directly interact with each other in person. An indirect meeting refers to a meeting conducted indirectly through designated mediators or facilitators. A qualifying indirect meeting must meet both of the following criteria (i) the designated intermediaries act with the knowledge and authorization of both entities; (ii) representatives of both entities are physically present in the same facility, venue, or city, with the intermediary conveying diplomatic communications between the representatives or delegations on the same day. “The same day” means the same calendar day local time at the meeting location.

The following do not qualify as either a direct or indirect diplomatic meeting: chance encounters; standalone exchanges limited to greetings, courtesies, or photo opportunities; meetings conducted remotely, by telephone, or by any other means where the relevant representatives are not physically present at the same facility, venue, or city on the same day; discussions involving persons not authorized to engage in diplomacy or negotiation on behalf of their respective governments.

Sessions, proceedings, or convenings of standing international organizations, treaty bodies, or recurring multilateral summits or conferences (e.g., the United Nations General Assembly, G7, and G20 summits) do not qualify, unless a qualifying and deliberate diplomatic meeting between representatives of the specified entities is separately held alongside such a convening.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.