Will Kai or Speed be eliminated by...?

Laut den neuesten Prognosemarktdaten zur Frage „Will Kai or Speed be eliminated by...?“ haben die Händler einen starken Konsens gebildet.

Derzeit dominiert Falling den Markt mit einer überwältigenden Gewinnwahrscheinlichkeit von 7.400%. Lava folgt auf dem zweiten Platz mit 5.650%, während Magic mit 5.050% auf dem dritten Platz liegt. Das Wettvolumen dieses Marktes hat bereits — erreicht, was auf großes Interesse hindeutet.

Um besser einzuschätzen, wo jedes mögliche Ergebnis steht, lässt sich der Markt anhand der impliziten Wahrscheinlichkeit und der Kontraktpreise in drei Handelsstufen unterteilen:

🥇 Stufe 1: Der dominante Spitzenreiter

• Falling (7.400%): Mit der höchsten Wahrscheinlichkeit wird Falling vom Orderbuch stark favorisiert. Wer auf dieses Ergebnis setzen will, sieht sich einem „Buy Yes“-Kontraktpreis von 7.400¢ gegenüber – ein Zeichen hoher Marktüberzeugung.

🥈 Stufe 2: Die wichtigsten Herausforderer

• Lava (5.650%): Als tragfähigste Alternative hält Lava eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 5.650%, einzutreten. Seine „Buy Yes“-Anteile werden derzeit zu 5.650¢ gehandelt.
• Magic (5.050%): Auf dem dritten Platz mit 5.050% Wahrscheinlichkeit zeigt der Markt eine maßvolle Skepsis gegenüber Magic und behandelt es als Außenseiter, sofern sich die Dynamik nicht ändert.

🥉 Stufe 3: Die Long-Tail-Optionen (zusammen ~0%)

Über die Top-3 hinaus wird ein breites Feld an Makrovariablen und Außenseiter-Ergebnissen verfolgt. Auch wenn ihre Einzelwahrscheinlichkeiten niedrig sind, bilden sie wichtige Absicherungen für spekulative Händler:

• Alternative Optionen: Dazu gehören Suffocation (5.050%), Void (5.050%) und Projectiles (5.000%).
• Spekulatives Volumen: Trotz geringer statistischer Wahrscheinlichkeit ziehen bestimmte Long-Tail-Kontrakte wie Drowning weiterhin nennenswertes Interesse an.

Kai Cenat and IShowSpeed are scheduled to stream a hardcore Minecraft marathon on August 7, 2026, at 5:00 PM ET, in which they will attempt to defeat the Ender Dragon, the Wither, the Warden, and the Elder Guardian in a hardcore Minecraft world on Java Edition, on the same seed, without either player dying in-game. For the purposes of this market, "the marathon" refers to Kai and Speed's Minecraft stream beginning on that date and continuing until they conclude or abandon it.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a death message listed in the Java Edition section of https://minecraft.wiki/w/Death_messages (as that page appeared at market creation) for the specified damage type is displayed for either Kai or Speed following an in-game death during the marathon. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Every death message listed for that damage type will count. The category of the in-game death is what matters, not the mob or player involved. Death messages listed for any other damage type on that page, or under the Bedrock Edition section, will not count, even where the cause of in-game death appears related.

A death message produced by any means other than an actual in-game death, including chat messages, overlays, or messages triggered by commands, will not count.

Only one qualifying in-game death is required, and it may be by either player. This market will resolve to "Yes" immediately upon a qualifying in-game death.

Only in-game deaths of the two accounts played by Kai Cenat and IShowSpeed will count. In-game deaths of any other player in the world, including guests, moderators, or co-streamers playing on their own accounts, will not count. It does not matter who is physically at the controls when an in-game death occurs; only whose account died in-game.

Deaths in any Minecraft world played as part of the marathon will count, including restarts on new seeds, and including if Kai and Speed modify or abandon the objectives of the challenge, change the ruleset, or play outside of Hardcore mode at any point. No in-game death will count if it occurs while the player in question is in Creative or Spectator mode, or if it results from the use of commands, cheats, or any external tool to spawn entities, alter the world, or deal damage.

Only in-game deaths occurring while at least one of the two players is broadcasting the marathon live will count. Footage of off-stream or previously recorded attempts will not qualify.

This market will remain open until the marathon ends, regardless of whether the challenge is completed. If the marathon ends without a qualifying in-game death, or if the marathon is cancelled or never begins, this market will resolve to "No". If the marathon is still ongoing as of September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on in-game deaths that have occurred up to that time.

The resolution source for this market will be footage from the official broadcasts of the marathon on Kai Cenat's and IShowSpeed's official broadcasts on YouTube and Twitch.