Maine Senate Election Margin of Victory (First Round)

Laut den neuesten Prognosemarktdaten zur Frage „Maine Senate Election Margin of Victory (First Round)“ haben die Händler einen starken Konsens gebildet.

Derzeit dominiert Republican 12%+ den Markt mit einer überwältigenden Gewinnwahrscheinlichkeit von 4.400%. Democrat 12%+ folgt auf dem zweiten Platz mit 4.250%, während Republican 9-12% mit 1.850% auf dem dritten Platz liegt. Das Wettvolumen dieses Marktes hat bereits — erreicht, was auf großes Interesse hindeutet.

Um besser einzuschätzen, wo jedes mögliche Ergebnis steht, lässt sich der Markt anhand der impliziten Wahrscheinlichkeit und der Kontraktpreise in drei Handelsstufen unterteilen:

🥇 Stufe 1: Der dominante Spitzenreiter

• Republican 12%+ (4.400%): Mit der höchsten Wahrscheinlichkeit wird Republican 12%+ vom Orderbuch stark favorisiert. Wer auf dieses Ergebnis setzen will, sieht sich einem „Buy Yes“-Kontraktpreis von 4.400¢ gegenüber – ein Zeichen hoher Marktüberzeugung.

🥈 Stufe 2: Die wichtigsten Herausforderer

• Democrat 12%+ (4.250%): Als tragfähigste Alternative hält Democrat 12%+ eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 4.250%, einzutreten. Seine „Buy Yes“-Anteile werden derzeit zu 4.250¢ gehandelt.
• Republican 9-12% (1.850%): Auf dem dritten Platz mit 1.850% Wahrscheinlichkeit zeigt der Markt eine maßvolle Skepsis gegenüber Republican 9-12% und behandelt es als Außenseiter, sofern sich die Dynamik nicht ändert.

🥉 Stufe 3: Die Long-Tail-Optionen (zusammen ~0%)

Über die Top-3 hinaus wird ein breites Feld an Makrovariablen und Außenseiter-Ergebnissen verfolgt. Auch wenn ihre Einzelwahrscheinlichkeiten niedrig sind, bilden sie wichtige Absicherungen für spekulative Händler:

• Alternative Optionen: Dazu gehören Republican 6-9% (1.850%), Republican 3-6% (1.850%) und Republican 0-3% (1.850%).
• Spekulatives Volumen: Trotz geringer statistischer Wahrscheinlichkeit ziehen bestimmte Long-Tail-Kontrakte wie Democrat 0-3% weiterhin nennenswertes Interesse an.

The 2026 first round of the Maine Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.

The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Maine Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.