SV Darmstadt 98 vs. Holstein Kiel
Core Summary
According to the latest prediction market data for the query “SV Darmstadt 98 vs. Holstein Kiel”, traders have formed a strong consensus.
Currently, Draw (SV Darmstadt 98 vs. Holstein Kiel) is dominating the market with an overwhelming 26.5% chance of winning. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $47.1K, reflecting intense industry interest.
Breakdown of Competitive Tiers
To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:
🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader
- Draw (SV Darmstadt 98 vs. Holstein Kiel) (26.5%): Currently commanding the highest probability, Draw (SV Darmstadt 98 vs. Holstein Kiel) is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 27¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $17.2K in volume.
Comprehensive Order Book & Pricing Dashboard
The table below outlines the full breakdown of contract prices, probabilities, and market depth for all listed outcomes in this prediction pool:
| Rank | Predicted Outcome | Win Probability | Trading Volume | Buy Yes (Cost) | Buy No (Cost) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Draw (SV Darmstadt 98 vs. Holstein Kiel) | 26.5% | $17.2K | 27¢ | 74¢ |
Result Rules
This event is for the upcoming 2. Bundesliga game, scheduled for Saturday, August 8, 2026 between SV Darmstadt 98 and Holstein Kiel.
AI Valuation Analysis: Finding Market Mispricings & EV Gaps
While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.
Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.
Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities
Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:
- The Most Overvalued Outcome Draw (SV Darmstadt 98 vs. Holstein Kiel) currently trades at 26.5%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 24.8%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -1.7%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
| Market | Trade Value | Fair Value | EV Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw (SV Darmstadt 98 vs. Holstein Kiel) | 26.5% | 24.8% | -1.7% |
Trade Activities
Here is the trade activities for this event.
Aug 8, 2026
- 07:59 AMLUludomun$1.32
Bought 2.444443 No for Will SV Darmstadt 98 win on 2026-08-08? at 0.54
- 07:59 AM——$1.10
Bought 2.037036 No for Will SV Darmstadt 98 win on 2026-08-08? at 0.54
- 07:59 AM——$300.41
Bought 639.170211 Yes for Will SV Darmstadt 98 win on 2026-08-08? at 0.47
- 07:51 AMRIriitmo$1.50
Bought 2.054792 No for Will Holstein Kiel win on 2026-08-08? at 0.73
- 07:50 AMREreflected9890$7.82
Bought 14.21818 No for Will SV Darmstadt 98 win on 2026-08-08? at 0.55
- 07:50 AMSOsonderdonder$1.43
Bought 5.107141 Yes for Will Holstein Kiel win on 2026-08-08? at 0.28
- 07:50 AMDRDriftCapital$4.53
Bought 6.21 No for Will Holstein Kiel win on 2026-08-08? at 0.73
- 07:49 AMLUludomun$6.70
Bought 9.178081 No for Will Holstein Kiel win on 2026-08-08? at 0.73
- 07:49 AMSXsxmachine$4.47
Bought 6.123285 No for Will Holstein Kiel win on 2026-08-08? at 0.73
- 07:49 AMFRfranklinfraga$1.00
Bought 2.173912 Yes for Will SV Darmstadt 98 win on 2026-08-08? at 0.46
- 07:49 AMWEWenfeiaiyou$2.01
Bought 2.753422 No for Will Holstein Kiel win on 2026-08-08? at 0.73
- 07:49 AM——$1.13
Bought 1.547944 No for Will Holstein Kiel win on 2026-08-08? at 0.73
Whales Wallets That Are Betting on This Event
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current market consensus on "SV Darmstadt 98 vs. Holstein Kiel"?
As of the latest update, Draw (SV Darmstadt 98 vs. Holstein Kiel) leads the field as the frontrunner with a 26.5% win probability. Total trading volume for this pool has reached $47.1K, indicating deep liquidity and high trader engagement.
How does the AI Fair Value differ from the live Market Trade Value?
The live Market Trade Value reflects public sentiment, order-book momentum and speculative capital. Our AI Fair Value is computed independently with quantitative models that strip out hype to focus on underlying data. When the two diverge, it creates an EV Gap, flagging where the market may be mispricing an outcome.
Is the market consensus overreacting to any specific outcome?
Yes — our data suggests a notable overreaction around Draw (SV Darmstadt 98 vs. Holstein Kiel). The crowd has pushed its live Trade Value up to 26.5%, yet our Fair Value assessment puts its real likelihood at just 24.8%, a negative EV Gap of -1.7% that signals the contract is overpriced.