Bitcoin Up or Down on August 19?
Core Summary
According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Bitcoin Up or Down on August 19?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.
Currently, Down is dominating the market with an overwhelming 6,150% chance of winning. Up follows in second place at 3,850%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $147.5K, reflecting intense industry interest.
Breakdown of Competitive Tiers
To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:
🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader
- Down (6,150%): Currently commanding the highest probability, Down is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 6,150¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction.
🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers
- Up (3,850%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, Up maintains a 3,850% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 3,850¢.
Comprehensive Order Book & Pricing Dashboard
The table below outlines the full breakdown of contract prices, probabilities, and market depth for all listed outcomes in this prediction pool:
| Rank | Predicted Outcome | Win Probability | Trading Volume | Buy Yes (Cost) | Buy No (Cost) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Down | 6150.0% | — | 6150¢ | -6050¢ |
| 2 | Up | 3850.0% | — | 3850¢ | -3750¢ |
Result Rules
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 18 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 19 '26 12:00 ET candle.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 18 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 19 '26 12:00 ET candle.
If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50.
The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.
Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Trade Activities
Here is the trade activities for this event.
Aug 18, 2026
- 09:03 AMRAravenzone55$2.55
Bought 5 Up for Bitcoin Up or Down on August 19? at 0.51
- 08:46 AMSTsteel.j$1.55
Bought 3.039214 Up for Bitcoin Up or Down on August 19? at 0.51
- 08:31 AMGIgigaqueen1980william$2.55
Bought 5 Up for Bitcoin Up or Down on August 19? at 0.51
- 08:30 AMDRdragon576$1.50
Bought 3 Down for Bitcoin Up or Down on August 19? at 0.5
- 08:23 AMPUpulsevoidcore$1.55
Bought 3.039214 Up for Bitcoin Up or Down on August 19? at 0.51
- 08:22 AMDAdatalord21hunt$2.55
Bought 5 Up for Bitcoin Up or Down on August 19? at 0.51
- 08:19 AMDAdark.crossironai699$1.50
Bought 3 Down for Bitcoin Up or Down on August 19? at 0.5
- 07:53 AMDAdarksys2001$2.55
Bought 5 Up for Bitcoin Up or Down on August 19? at 0.51
- 07:49 AMLIlightcorekimberlyfox$1.50
Bought 3 Down for Bitcoin Up or Down on August 19? at 0.5
- 07:43 AMDRdragonaivoidpilot269$2.50
Bought 5 Down for Bitcoin Up or Down on August 19? at 0.5
- 07:31 AMCOcorepro27$2.50
Bought 5 Down for Bitcoin Up or Down on August 19? at 0.5
- 06:59 AMNOnovaaitigerlt$2.50
Bought 5 Down for Bitcoin Up or Down on August 19? at 0.5
Whales Wallets That Are Betting on This Event
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current market consensus on "Bitcoin Up or Down on August 19?"?
As of the latest update, Down leads the field as the frontrunner with a 6,150% win probability, followed by Up at 3,850%. Total trading volume for this pool has reached $147.5K, indicating deep liquidity and high trader engagement.