US Open, Qualification ATP: Toby Samuel vs Cristian Garin

$301.5K Vol
Sep 3, 2026
Active
Probability Trend
Cristian Garin 68.5%
Toby Samuel 31.5%

Core Summary

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “US Open, Qualification ATP: Toby Samuel vs Cristian Garin”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, Completed Match is dominating the market with an overwhelming 5,000% chance of winning. US Open, Qualification ATP: Toby Samuel vs Cristian Garin Total Sets: O/U 2.5 follows in second place at 5,000%, while US Open, Qualification ATP: Toby Samuel vs Cristian Garin Match O/U 21.5 sits in third with 5,000%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $301.5K, reflecting intense industry interest.

Breakdown of Competitive Tiers

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

  • Completed Match (5,000%): Currently commanding the highest probability, Completed Match is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 5,000¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

  • US Open, Qualification ATP: Toby Samuel vs Cristian Garin Total Sets: O/U 2.5 (5,000%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, US Open, Qualification ATP: Toby Samuel vs Cristian Garin Total Sets: O/U 2.5 maintains a 5,000% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 5,000¢.
  • US Open, Qualification ATP: Toby Samuel vs Cristian Garin Match O/U 21.5 (5,000%): Sitting in third place with a 5,000% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward US Open, Qualification ATP: Toby Samuel vs Cristian Garin Match O/U 21.5, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~0%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

  • Alternative Options: This includes US Open, Qualification ATP: Toby Samuel vs Cristian Garin Game Spread +/-3.5 (5,000%), US Open, Qualification ATP: Toby Samuel vs Cristian Garin Match O/U 23.5 (5,000%), and US Open, Qualification ATP: Toby Samuel vs Cristian Garin Set 2 O/U 10.5 (5,000%).
  • Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like US Open, Qualification ATP: Toby Samuel vs Cristian Garin Match O/U 22.5 are still attracting notable interest.

Comprehensive Order Book & Pricing Dashboard

The table below outlines the full breakdown of contract prices, probabilities, and market depth for all listed outcomes in this prediction pool:

RankPredicted OutcomeWin ProbabilityTrading VolumeBuy Yes (Cost)Buy No (Cost)
1Completed Match5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
2US Open, Qualification ATP: Toby Samuel vs Cristian Garin Total Sets: O/U 2.55000.0%$245000¢-4900¢
3US Open, Qualification ATP: Toby Samuel vs Cristian Garin Match O/U 21.55000.0%$105000¢-4900¢
4US Open, Qualification ATP: Toby Samuel vs Cristian Garin Game Spread +/-3.55000.0%$1285000¢-4900¢
5US Open, Qualification ATP: Toby Samuel vs Cristian Garin Match O/U 23.55000.0%$35000¢-4900¢
6US Open, Qualification ATP: Toby Samuel vs Cristian Garin Set 2 O/U 10.55000.0%5000¢-4900¢
7US Open, Qualification ATP: Toby Samuel vs Cristian Garin Match O/U 22.54920.0%$1694920¢-4820¢
8US Open, Qualification ATP: Toby Samuel vs Cristian Garin3150.0%$314.5K3150¢-3050¢
9US Open, Qualification ATP: Toby Samuel vs Cristian Garin Set 2 Winner2650.0%$1062650¢-2550¢

Result Rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Toby Samuel and Cristian Garin in the US Open, Qualification ATP, originally scheduled for August 27, 2026 at 11:00AM ET.

This market will resolve to 'Toby Samuel' if Toby Samuel advances against Cristian Garin.

This market will resolve to 'Cristian Garin' if Cristian Garin advances against Toby Samuel.

If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50.

If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.

If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Trade Activities

Here is the trade activities for this event.

Aug 27, 2026

  • 09:27 AM
    USUSDPRINTING
    $8.00

    Bought 24.24 Cristian Garin for US Open, Qualification ATP: Toby Samuel vs Cristian Garin at 0.33

  • 09:24 AM
    USUSDPRINTING
    $8.00

    Bought 24.24 Cristian Garin for US Open, Qualification ATP: Toby Samuel vs Cristian Garin at 0.33

  • 09:21 AM
    HEhephaistus
    $1.00

    Bought 1.470587 Toby Samuel for US Open, Qualification ATP: Toby Samuel vs Cristian Garin at 0.68

  • 09:21 AM
    DADanshan11
    $16.24

    Bought 24.24 Toby Samuel for US Open, Qualification ATP: Toby Samuel vs Cristian Garin at 0.67

  • 09:19 AM
    0X0xAba48855243D9998CE5781C11e21160DafFE3fA6-1783087448963
    $3.00

    Bought 8.823528 Cristian Garin for US Open, Qualification ATP: Toby Samuel vs Cristian Garin at 0.34

  • 09:19 AM
    $1.00

    Bought 1.492536 Toby Samuel for US Open, Qualification ATP: Toby Samuel vs Cristian Garin at 0.67

  • 09:19 AM
    0X0xAba48855243D9998CE5781C11e21160DafFE3fA6-1783087448963
    $3.00

    Bought 8.823528 Cristian Garin for US Open, Qualification ATP: Toby Samuel vs Cristian Garin at 0.34

  • 09:19 AM
    BAbahsperiamobene
    $70.00

    Bought 104.477609 Toby Samuel for US Open, Qualification ATP: Toby Samuel vs Cristian Garin at 0.67

  • 09:18 AM
    PAPaperCut1k
    $5.00

    Bought 7.462684 Toby Samuel for US Open, Qualification ATP: Toby Samuel vs Cristian Garin at 0.67

  • 09:17 AM
    0X0xaE457d6d83362588DD2B8E23B2c8c359212396B9-1770832003765
    $8.92

    Bought 13.32 Toby Samuel for US Open, Qualification ATP: Toby Samuel vs Cristian Garin at 0.67

  • 09:17 AM
    DADanshan11
    $5.08

    Bought 7.69 Toby Samuel for US Open, Qualification ATP: Toby Samuel vs Cristian Garin at 0.66

  • 08:45 AM
    UPUpTheBlues
    $13.09

    Bought 38.5 Cristian Garin for US Open, Qualification ATP: Toby Samuel vs Cristian Garin at 0.34

Whales Wallets That Are Betting on This Event

DO1
Donghui
Event PnL
+$10,650.16
Volume
$29,999.92
Positions
Cristian Garin
TA2
Tantula
Event PnL
-$6,159.04
Volume
$21,717.25
Positions
Toby Samuel
SK3
skitit
Event PnL
+$938.93
Volume
$17,429.11
Positions
Cristian Garin
2C4
0x2c33…5465
Event PnL
+$316.16
Volume
$16,074.63
Positions
Cristian Garin
AL5
alexdave888
Event PnL
+$4,575.00
Volume
$15,000.00
Positions
Cristian Garin
GG6
gggjajnsnn
Event PnL
-$308.52
Volume
$12,341.18
Positions
Toby Samuel
FE7
ferrariChampions2026
Event PnL
-$538.05
Volume
$11,975.74
Positions
Toby Samuel
JE8
Jeffplatter
Event PnL
-$936.05
Volume
$11,314.12
Positions
Toby Samuel

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current market consensus on "US Open, Qualification ATP: Toby Samuel vs Cristian Garin"?

As of the latest update, Completed Match leads the field as the frontrunner with a 5,000% win probability, followed by US Open, Qualification ATP: Toby Samuel vs Cristian Garin Total Sets: O/U 2.5 at 5,000% and US Open, Qualification ATP: Toby Samuel vs Cristian Garin Match O/U 21.5 at 5,000%. Total trading volume for this pool has reached $301.5K, indicating deep liquidity and high trader engagement.

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