2026 July 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “2026 July 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, 1st hottest is dominating the market with an overwhelming 5,750% chance of winning. 3rd hottest follows in second place at 4,150%, while 2nd hottest sits in third with 4,100%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached —, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• 1st hottest (5,750%): Currently commanding the highest probability, 1st hottest is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 5,750¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• 3rd hottest (4,150%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, 3rd hottest maintains a 4,150% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 4,150¢.
• 2nd hottest (4,100%): Sitting in third place with a 4,100% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward 2nd hottest, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~0%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes 4th or lower (2,750%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like 4th or lower are still attracting notable interest.

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 versus the data points available for all other Julys on record.

Note: If July 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.

If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.