Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach __ barrels per day in 2026?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach __ barrels per day in 2026?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, 1.1m is dominating the market with an overwhelming 95.7% chance of winning. 1.2m follows in second place at 83.5%, while 1.3m sits in third with 43%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $113K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• 1.1m (95.7%): Currently commanding the highest probability, 1.1m is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 96¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $15.2K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• 1.2m (83.5%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, 1.2m maintains a 83.5% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 84¢.
• 1.3m (43%): Sitting in third place with a 43% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward 1.3m, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~0%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes 1.4m (14.5%), 1.5m (11.5%), and 1.7m (6.5%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like 2m are still attracting notable interest.

This market will resolve to “Yes”, if Venezuelan crude oil production is greater than or equal to the listed number of barrels per day for any month in 2026, according to the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published for each month.

The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row.

This market will resolve as soon as Venezuelan crude oil production is reported to be greater than or equal to the listed number. If the listed number has not been reached for any month by the release of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 (expected to be released in January 2027), this market will resolve to “No”. If no Opec Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 has been published by February 28, 2027, ET and the listed number has not been reached for any prior month, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market reports crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome 1.2m currently trades at 83.5%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 48.2%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -35.3%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies 1.4m as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 14.5% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 20.8% — yielding an impressive +6.3% EV Gap.
• Under-the-Radar Dark Horses Other notable discrepancies include 2m (EV Gap: +0.8%) and 1.7m (EV Gap: +0.2%). These long-tail opportunities are heavily discounted by the live order books despite stronger statistical backing from our predictive model.