Will the Catholic Church publicly excommunicate anyone else in 2026?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Will the Catholic Church publicly excommunicate anyone else in 2026?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, No is dominating the market with an overwhelming 6,200% chance of winning. Yes follows in second place at 3,800%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached —, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• No (6,200%): Currently commanding the highest probability, No is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 6,200¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• Yes (3,800%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, Yes maintains a 3,800% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 3,800¢.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Roman Catholic Church announces the excommunication of any individual or group of individuals subsequent to market creation and by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be information from Pope Leo XIV, official information from the Catholic Church, or a consensus of credible reporting.