Will Nigel Farage up his vote share in Clacton?
Core Summary
According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Will Nigel Farage up his vote share in Clacton?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.
Currently, Yes is dominating the market with an overwhelming 5,000% chance of winning. No follows in second place at 5,000%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached —, reflecting intense industry interest.
Breakdown of Competitive Tiers
To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:
🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader
- Yes (5,000%): Currently commanding the highest probability, Yes is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 5,000¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction.
🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers
- No (5,000%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, No maintains a 5,000% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 5,000¢.
Comprehensive Order Book & Pricing Dashboard
The table below outlines the full breakdown of contract prices, probabilities, and market depth for all listed outcomes in this prediction pool:
| Rank | Predicted Outcome | Win Probability | Trading Volume | Buy Yes (Cost) | Buy No (Cost) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yes | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 2 | No | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
Result Rules
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nigel Farage receives a greater percentage of valid votes in the next by-election in Clacton than in the 2024 election in Clacton. Percentages of the valid votes received by Nigel Farage in each election will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes Nigel Farage received by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If Nigel Farage does not contest the next by-election in Clacton, if no by-election happens by June 30, 2027, or if the results of the by-election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
Trade Activities
Here is the trade activities for this event.
Jul 8, 2026
- 08:13 AMRIrichyee$41.50
Sold 50 Yes for Will Nigel Farage up his vote share in Clacton? at 0.83
- 08:09 AMALAllyouneedisClaude$62.30
Sold 70 Yes for Will Nigel Farage up his vote share in Clacton? at 0.89
- 08:09 AMSASakuraDevil$22.20
Bought 222 No for Will Nigel Farage up his vote share in Clacton? at 0.1
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current market consensus on "Will Nigel Farage up his vote share in Clacton?"?
As of the latest update, Yes leads the field as the frontrunner with a 5,000% win probability, followed by No at 5,000%. Total trading volume for this pool has reached —, indicating deep liquidity and high trader engagement.