Will MicroStrategy announce selling any Bitcoin by ___?

Jan 1, 2027
Active
Probability Trend
September 30, 2026 52.5%
December 31, 2026 52.5%

Core Summary

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Will MicroStrategy announce selling any Bitcoin by ___?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, September 30, 2026 is dominating the market with an overwhelming 5,750% chance of winning. December 31, 2026 follows in second place at 5,200%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached —, reflecting intense industry interest.

Breakdown of Competitive Tiers

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

  • September 30, 2026 (5,750%): Currently commanding the highest probability, September 30, 2026 is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 5,750¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

  • December 31, 2026 (5,200%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, December 31, 2026 maintains a 5,200% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 5,200¢.

Comprehensive Order Book & Pricing Dashboard

The table below outlines the full breakdown of contract prices, probabilities, and market depth for all listed outcomes in this prediction pool:

RankPredicted OutcomeWin ProbabilityTrading VolumeBuy Yes (Cost)Buy No (Cost)
1September 30, 20265750.0%5750¢-5650¢
2December 31, 20265200.0%5200¢-5100¢

Result Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Strategy Inc., formerly known as MicroStrategy, announces that they have sold any Bitcoin by the date in the title, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on announcements made within the market's designated time frame regardless of when the actual sells were made.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from MicroStrategy (https://x.com/Strategy) or Michael Saylor (https://x.com/saylor).

For reference, MicroStrategy's reported BTC holdings can be tracked at: https://www.strategy.com/purchases

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current market consensus on "Will MicroStrategy announce selling any Bitcoin by ___?"?

As of the latest update, September 30, 2026 leads the field as the frontrunner with a 5,750% win probability, followed by December 31, 2026 at 5,200%. Total trading volume for this pool has reached —, indicating deep liquidity and high trader engagement.

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