Will Clarence Thomas announce his retirement by...?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Will Clarence Thomas announce his retirement by...?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, December 31, 2026 is dominating the market with an overwhelming 5,350% chance of winning. September 30, 2026 follows in second place at 4,500%, while June 30, 2027 sits in third with 4,500%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached —, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• December 31, 2026 (5,350%): Currently commanding the highest probability, December 31, 2026 is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 5,350¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• September 30, 2026 (4,500%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, September 30, 2026 maintains a 4,500% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 4,500¢.
• June 30, 2027 (4,500%): Sitting in third place with a 4,500% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward June 30, 2027, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Clarence Thomas announces that he will retire from his position as a Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future.

Any qualifying announcement from Thomas will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Thomas or one of his official representatives.