Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, Yes is dominating the market with an overwhelming 86% chance of winning. No follows in second place at 14%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $141.2K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• Yes (86%): Currently commanding the highest probability, Yes is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 86¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• No (14%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, No maintains a 14% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 14¢.

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.

This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.

If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome Yes currently trades at 86%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 75.6%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -10.4%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies No as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 14% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 24.4% — yielding an impressive +10.4% EV Gap.