Who will Trump publicly insult by June 30?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Who will Trump publicly insult by June 30?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, Jimmy Kimmel is dominating the market with an overwhelming 19.5% chance of winning. Benjamin Netanyahu follows in second place at 17.5%, while Megyn Kelly sits in third with 8.3%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $1.2M, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• Jimmy Kimmel (19.5%): Currently commanding the highest probability, Jimmy Kimmel is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 20¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $88.6K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• Benjamin Netanyahu (17.5%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, Benjamin Netanyahu maintains a 17.5% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 18¢.
• Megyn Kelly (8.3%): Sitting in third place with a 8.3% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward Megyn Kelly, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~54.8%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes Kevin Warsh (7.7%), Keir Starmer (6%), and Zohran Mamdani (5.4%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like Alex Jones are still attracting notable interest.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks the listed individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.

A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.

Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies Norah O'Donnell as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 3.6% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 43.5% — yielding an impressive +39.9% EV Gap.
• Under-the-Radar Dark Horses Other notable discrepancies include Vladimir Putin (EV Gap: +39%) and Pam Bondi (EV Gap: +38.8%). These long-tail opportunities are heavily discounted by the live order books despite stronger statistical backing from our predictive model.