Who will Trump pardon before 2027?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Who will Trump pardon before 2027?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, Donald Brodie is dominating the market with an overwhelming 53% chance of winning. Daniel Penny follows in second place at 47.5%, while Matt Gaetz sits in third with 43%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $278.5K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• Donald Brodie (53%): Currently commanding the highest probability, Donald Brodie is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 53¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $15 in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• Daniel Penny (47.5%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, Daniel Penny maintains a 47.5% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 48¢.
• Matt Gaetz (43%): Sitting in third place with a 43% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward Matt Gaetz, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~0%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes Bob Menendez (41.4%), Roger Stone (37.5%), and Stefan Brodie (37.5%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like Steve Bannon are still attracting notable interest.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome Stefan Brodie currently trades at 37.5%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 1%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -36.5%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies Ryan Salame as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 14% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 43.9% — yielding an impressive +29.9% EV Gap.
• Under-the-Radar Dark Horses Other notable discrepancies include Eric Adams (EV Gap: +13%) and Martin Shkreli (EV Gap: +9.1%). These long-tail opportunities are heavily discounted by the live order books despite stronger statistical backing from our predictive model.