Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, Mohammed bin Salman is dominating the market with an overwhelming 10% chance of winning. Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah follows in second place at 9.5%, while Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sits in third with 8.5%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $954.4K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• Mohammed bin Salman (10%): Currently commanding the highest probability, Mohammed bin Salman is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 10¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $148.0K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah (9.5%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah maintains a 9.5% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 10¢.
• Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani (8.5%): Sitting in third place with a 8.5% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~72%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan (7.5%), Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf (6%), and Marco Rubio (5.5%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like Benjamin Netanyahu are still attracting notable interest.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity.

The United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify.

The listed individual may sign on behalf of either party, a third-party state, an international organization, or any other party to the agreement.

Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies Recep Tayyip Erdogan as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 1% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 42.7% — yielding an impressive +41.8% EV Gap.
• Under-the-Radar Dark Horses Other notable discrepancies include Marco Rubio (EV Gap: +40.1%) and Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa (EV Gap: +39.6%). These long-tail opportunities are heavily discounted by the live order books despite stronger statistical backing from our predictive model.