Which countries will sign the US x Iran deal by June 30?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Which countries will sign the US x Iran deal by June 30?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, Turkey is dominating the market with an overwhelming 14.5% chance of winning. Saudi Arabia follows in second place at 11%, while Oman sits in third with 9.5%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $206K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• Turkey (14.5%): Currently commanding the highest probability, Turkey is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 14¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $9.7K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• Saudi Arabia (11%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, Saudi Arabia maintains a 11% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 11¢.
• Oman (9.5%): Sitting in third place with a 9.5% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward Oman, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~65%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes Kuwait (6.5%), Jordan (6.5%), and Lebanon (4.5%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like Syria are still attracting notable interest.

On June 14, 2026, the US and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement between the two countries, with an announced signing ceremony on June 19.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if an authorized representative of the listed country signs the agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14, 2026 by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The “agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14, 2026” includes any later-modified version that is publicly identified by credible reporting as a successor version of the same agreement.

The agreement must be signed by an authorized representative of the listed country, acting on behalf of the listed country, including by signing a copy of the agreement or another signature page that forms part of the agreement.

Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome Oman currently trades at 9.5%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 1%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -8.5%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies Qatar as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 0.8% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 13.7% — yielding an impressive +12.9% EV Gap.
• Under-the-Radar Dark Horses Other notable discrepancies include Syria (EV Gap: +10%) and Saudi Arabia (EV Gap: +4.9%). These long-tail opportunities are heavily discounted by the live order books despite stronger statistical backing from our predictive model.