Which bills will become law in 2026?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Which bills will become law in 2026?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, Housing for the 21st Century Act is dominating the market with an overwhelming 100% chance of winning. Export-control chip security follows in second place at 56.5%, while DEFIANCE Act sits in third with 50%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $160.8K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• Housing for the 21st Century Act (100%): Currently commanding the highest probability, Housing for the 21st Century Act is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 100¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• Export-control chip security (56.5%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, Export-control chip security maintains a 56.5% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 56¢.
• DEFIANCE Act (50%): Sitting in third place with a 50% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward DEFIANCE Act, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~0%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes $2.50 Coin (39%), AI-chip export licensing (36.5%), and SHOWER Act (34%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like Critical-minerals stockpile are still attracting notable interest.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if X is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Qualifying legislation includes

Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".

The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22), the Library of Congress (congress.gov), and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome Housing for the 21st Century Act currently trades at 100%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 29.2%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -70.7%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies Credit-card routing competition as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 11% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 22.3% — yielding an impressive +11.3% EV Gap.
• Under-the-Radar Dark Horses Other notable discrepancies include Trump Airport (EV Gap: +10.5%) and SELF DRIVE Act (EV Gap: +8.8%). These long-tail opportunities are heavily discounted by the live order books despite stronger statistical backing from our predictive model.