What will Trump post this week? (July 13 - July 19)

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “What will Trump post this week? (July 13 - July 19)”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, World Cup is dominating the market with an overwhelming 8,100% chance of winning. Ronaldo follows in second place at 7,850%, while Wall Street sits in third with 6,050%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $132, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• World Cup (8,100%): Currently commanding the highest probability, World Cup is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 8,100¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $40 in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• Ronaldo (7,850%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, Ronaldo maintains a 7,850% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 7,850¢.
• Wall Street (6,050%): Sitting in third place with a 6,050% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward Wall Street, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~0%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes Goal (4,550%), Gold / Golden (4,250%), and Pope (4,200%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like Scam are still attracting notable interest.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if @realDonaldTrump posts/truths the listed term between July 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and July 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, all text posted by the listed account in quote and reply posts/truths count toward a "Yes" resolution, but quoted posts/truths and reposts/reTruths will not count.

Text posted in images, memes, or other non-animated, non-video media that are not strictly text will qualify towards a "Yes" resolution only if the listed term is spelled out clearly and in full. (e.g., words spelled out in a letter posted as a .jpg will qualify, however a word posted as part of an animated .gif will not.)

Any plural or possessive forms of a listed term, as well as variance in capitalizations, will count toward the resolution of this market, regardless of context. Other forms of the listed term will NOT count.

Extraneous symbols being inserted into a word (ex: r@d1cal, for "radical") will disqualify it from counting toward a "Yes" resolution. Sigils at the beginnings of words, such as hashtags, "@" symbols, or denotations of currency, will not disqualify a term from counting towards a "Yes" resolution.

Misspellings or iterations of the listed term, including all grammatical or slang forms, or misspellings with extra, missing, or incorrect letters (ex: helloooooooo or heoll, for ‘hello’), will not count toward a “Yes” resolution, regardless of context or intent.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

The resolution source for this market will be Donald Trump's verified Truth Social account: @realDonaldTrump

Please note, only the @realDonaldTrump verified Truth Social account counts for this market, regardless of the URL for this profile. If Donald Trump posts/truths from another account, it has no bearing on the resolution of this market.