What will be the top US Netflix movie this week?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “What will be the top US Netflix movie this week?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, Enola Holmes 3 is dominating the market with an overwhelming 8,500% chance of winning. Little Brother follows in second place at 1,300%, while Voicemails for Isabelle sits in third with 235%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $56.5K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• Enola Holmes 3 (8,500%): Currently commanding the highest probability, Enola Holmes 3 is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 8,500¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $11.4K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• Little Brother (1,300%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, Little Brother maintains a 1,300% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 1,300¢.
• Voicemails for Isabelle (235%): Sitting in third place with a 235% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward Voicemails for Isabelle, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~0%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes GOAT (5%), Maternal Instinct (5%), and KPop Demon Hunters (5%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like Spider-Man: Homecoming are still attracting notable interest.

Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, July 7, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday).

This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #1 US Netflix movie.

The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for US Top 10 Movies.

If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by July 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".