Venezuela presidential election scheduled by...?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Venezuela presidential election scheduled by...?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, December 31 is dominating the market with an overwhelming 8.5% chance of winning. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $644.5K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• December 31 (8.5%): Currently commanding the highest probability, December 31 is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 9¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $152.3K in volume.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Venezuelan presidential election is scheduled by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

To qualify, the election must be scheduled to be held before 2030.

This market is about whether a date for the next Venezuelan presidential election is announced within this market's timeframe. Whether the election is supposed to take place within this market's timeframe or later will have no effect on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Venezuela; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome December 31 currently trades at 8.5%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 1%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -7.5%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.