US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, December 31 is dominating the market with an overwhelming 12.5% chance of winning. July 31 follows in second place at 1.8%, while June 30 sits in third with 0.2%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $28.1M, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• December 31 (12.5%): Currently commanding the highest probability, December 31 is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 13¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $1.8M in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• July 31 (1.8%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, July 31 maintains a 1.8% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 2¢.
• June 30 (0.2%): Sitting in third place with a 0.2% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward June 30, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.

Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.

A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies December 31 as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 12.5% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 21.5% — yielding an impressive +9% EV Gap.
• Under-the-Radar Dark Horses Other notable discrepancies include July 31 (EV Gap: +7.8%) and June 30 (EV Gap: +0.9%). These long-tail opportunities are heavily discounted by the live order books despite stronger statistical backing from our predictive model.